Abstract

While extensive research has been carried out on the management of various types of infrastructure assets, limited research has been carried out for coastal structures. The rapid growth of the world population living in low-lying areas within close range to the shoreline over the past century compounded by the impact of global climate change on shoreline hydrodynamics; have increased the importance of coastal infrastructure management. Climate change has recently increased storm intensities in addition to decreasing storm return periods; imposing greater risks to life and property. The aim of this research is to provide an artificial-intelligence-based framework for coastal protection structures, which is capable of predicting structural deterioration patterns, and accordingly offers the end user the capability of optimization of repair, maintenance, and rehabilitation costs, in addition to the optimization of risk exposure limits under pre-defined budgetary constraints. For this purpose, an Asset Inventory Database (AID) for coastal assets is developed, comprising the design, environmental, and historical data pertaining to coastal assets. Established visual inspection and condition rating procedures are followed to obtain the values for the Structural Condition Index (SI) and a Structural Condition Matrix (SCM) for individual structures, considering a single inspection point. This takes into account cases where no previous inspection and condition rating records are available. SI’s are in their turns classified into severity ranges. Functional Condition Indices (FI's) are also calculated for submerged structures that could not be visually inspected and taken as the equivalent to the Condition Index (CI). Deterioration Transition Matrices (DTM's), including transition probabilities between each of the deterioration severity ranges are next calculated using backward Markov-Chain (MC) analysis. Such probabilities are then utilized to formulate the Markovian Deterioration Transition Matrix (DTM) for each individual sub-reach and hence each individual structure; enabling the prediction of future deterioration. The trends obtained from this forward Markovian deterioration modeling are approximated by mathematical functions using best-fit regression. The single-time deterioration effect of design and intermediate storms is also considered by virtue of the Storm Simulator feature. By calculating the average maintenance and repair per meter run of every coastal structure, corresponding to the condition of the structure, a Genetic-Algorithm (GA) – based Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) optimization modeling is then developed with the aim to minimize the total LCC for the entire coastal assets up to year 2050, while achieving the minimum reliability of structures, expressed as a Priority Index (PI). PI's are numerical values that are factors in the condition state of the structure and its criticality with respect to risk to life and property upon failure. In parallel, another optimization module aims at minimizing the total risk exposure level under various budget scenarios. Both the LCC and risk optimization modules were run for various scenarios of storm occurrences to account for the effect of global climate change. The considered case study in this research is a group of 43 different structures in Alexandria, Egypt. It was found that under stringent climatic conditions, the required LCC to maintain coastal structures at the desired level of reliability increases dramatically as opposed to normal climatic conditions. In addition, it was observed that the risk to life and property decreases with the increase of available budget for maintenance and repair. Further, the suggested framework was observed to be more cost-efficient than the common maintenance and repair strategies, in terms of keeping the maximum acceptable PI threshold.

Degree Name

MS in Construction Engineering

Graduation Date

6-1-2015

Submission Date

December 2015

First Advisor

Hosny, Ossama

Committee Member 1

Osman, Hesham

Committee Member 2

Iskander, Moheb Mi

Extent

201 p.

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Library of Congress Subject Heading 1

InfraStructure.

Library of Congress Subject Heading 2

Infrastructure (Economics) -- Egypt.

Rights

The author retains all rights with regard to copyright. The author certifies that written permission from the owner(s) of third-party copyrighted matter included in the thesis, dissertation, paper, or record of study has been obtained. The author further certifies that IRB approval has been obtained for this thesis, or that IRB approval is not necessary for this thesis. Insofar as this thesis, dissertation, paper, or record of study is an educational record as defined in the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) (20 USC 1232g), the author has granted consent to disclosure of it to anyone who requests a copy.

Institutional Review Board (IRB) Approval

Not necessary for this item

Comments

My sincere acknowledgement to Prof. Dr. Ossama Hosny, of the Construction and Architectural Engineering Department at the AUC, not only for his generous physical and psychological support throughout my thesis work, but also for his invaluable encouragement to myself to get involved in Academic research, writing, and publishing. I equally thank Prof. Dr. Hesham Osman of the Civil Engineering Department, Cairo University; for his patience, diligence, and attention to detail which he expressed in reviewing my thesis work, and in providing extremely thorough guidance as to infrastructure asset magement methods and tools. My deep appreciation to Prof. Dr. Moheb Mi Iskander, Head of the Hydrodymics Department at CoRI, Alexandria, not only for his generous provision of historical design, environmental, and cost data regarding the study area, but also for his continuous follow-up and support during the write-up and the review of the thesis. Special thanks to my fellow colleague Engineer Soliman Amr Abu-Samra of the Construction and Architectural Engineering Department at the AUC, for the joint work we published together in the field of deterioration and optimization with regard to coastal infrastructure. Such works laid the base towards establishing and enhancing the modeling tools utilized in this research. Special acknowledgement to Prof. Dr. Alfy Morcos Fanous, former Chairman of CoRI; Prof. Dr. Mohamed El-Raey, Higher Research Institute (HRI), Alexandria; Mr. Engineer Walid Khalil, Syndicate of Egyptians Engineers and former Technical Mager at Dr. Mahmoud Fayez Zaki (FZ) Consulting Co., Alexandria; Mr. Engineer Mohamed El Dakkak, the Head of the Engineering Division at the Port of Alexandria Authority, PhD Candidate at the Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Alexandria, Egypt; Mr. Engineer Medhat Khalifa and Mr. Engineer Yasser Samak of the Arab Contractors Co., Alexandria Branch; Mr. Engineer Abdessalam El-Fiky, Chairman of the Abdessalam El-Fiky Construction Co. (AF Co.); Mr. Engineer Mohamed Said Farahat, Head of Execution Department, Suez Cal Co. for Port Works and Mega Projects, Alexandria Area; and Mr. Engineer Ahmed Neamatallah of the Engineering Department of Talaat Mostafa Holding Group. All of you have significantly contributed towards this research by either provision of design data for structures within the scope of the study, or by providing expert opinion whenever the research required, and by also verifying and validating the findings of this research. Data acquisition was not an easy task. The first part was to collect the data pertaining to the design attributes, construction and repair history, bathymetry, and wave data for all structures within the study area. Data regarding the cost of construction and repair were also collected by the author. The author first approached the CoRI Hydrodymics Department. The guidance received from CoRI was invaluable in terms of the environmental data. In the zone extending between Al-Saraya Beach and Al-Mandara, an old bathymetric map produced by CoRI was utilized although dating back to year 2002 (i.e. before the launch of the Cornice widening works), given that the study area did not witness any works that affected its seabed bathymetry. Furthermore, CoRI provided the author with copies of two editions of the Shore Protection Master Plan of the Northern Nile Delta Coast, developed by Tetra Tech Inc. in 1985 and 1986. Tetra Tech (1985:1986) included all design attributes of the Eastern Harbor breakwaters, as well as their condition, cost of repair, maintence, and replacement. It also included a study on the old Eastern Harbor seawall attributes, condition, repair, maintence and replacement policies as well as their associated costs. CoRI also provided essential guidance as to the wave data of the study area, and suggested the cited literature in this research. Among the approached marine works contractors in Alexandria was Abdessalam El-Fiky (AF Co.). AF Co. provided the author with a photographic progress report they produced, documenting their Qaytbey Fort marine protection works in 1994. The report includes valuable information of the problems that culmited into the need for marine protection works for the historic fort, the obstacles faced, and the works that were accomplished for the new revetment and seawall. The report also report displays design plans, cross-sections of the Qaytbey Fort marine protection works, bills of quantities, and bathymetry of the area immediately facing the fort. Other design information for the Police Club breakwaters and Al-Kihrban Bay were obtained from data provided by their designer, Professor Dr. Mahmoud Fayez Zaki Consulting Office (FZ Co.). As for San Stefano area, specifications, design and as-built drawings for the breakwaters, piers, and groins; were acquired from Egyco, the project's main contractor. Egyco's documents also include a bathymetric survey post the constrcuction of the San Stefano breakwaters and piers. Arab Contractors Co. were kind enough to provide a copy of a report produced by his company in 2007. The report includes extensive data on a variety of projects executed by Arab Contractors in Alexandria between 2000 and 2007. Such works include the Pharos Promede widening project, the Cornice Widening works in Al-Chatby, Cleopatra, Camp Cesare, Al-Ibrahimiya, Sporting, Sidi Gaber, Stanley, and Sidi Bishr. The report, written in Arabic, inlcudes also detailed information on breakwaters, revetments, and groins constructed by Arab Contractors Co. in the Mustapha Kamel Armed Forces Club, Teachers Club, Professiol Clubs area, Glim Bay, Bir Masoud, Miami, and Al-Mandara. The report contains typical cross-sections and includes data regarding durations of execution, equipment used, and total costs of the works. Other historical data on Alexandria including Admiralty Maps and marine works in Alexandria prior to the Cornice Widening works were acquired from the design office TELCONSULT Co. In light of the data availability, the fil study area was decided to comprise the region between the Pharos peninsula and the western boundary of Al-Montaza headland. This is the area where all sorts of data were acquired by the author between December 2012 and July 2013.

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