Sequential Generative-Supervised Strategies for Improved Multi-Step Oil Well Production Forecasting

Funding Sponsor

Information Technology Industry Development Agency

Author's Department

Computer Science & Engineering Department

Second Author's Department

Computer Science & Engineering Department

Third Author's Department

Computer Science & Engineering Department

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https://doi.org/10.1145/3647750.3647758

All Authors

Mina Mikhael, Nourhan Sakr, Tamer Elbatt

Document Type

Research Article

Publication Title

ACM International Conference Proceeding Series

Publication Date

1-26-2024

doi

10.1145/3647750.3647758

Abstract

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) exhibit great potential in many areas. In this paper, we explore their potential in multi-step time series forecasting. To the extent of our knowledge, this task has not been extensively researched yet, possibly due to its unique challenges when trying to model the original temporal behavior of the data. We propose a model for concrete multi-step forecasting where we mix the generative power of the unsupervised GAN loss with the deterministic prediction capabilities of supervised losses. We do this in a rather simple, sequential manner that proves to be helpful for both components of the architecture. The unsupervised component does its job by offering multiple generated predictions that follow the temporal dynamics of the time series, while the supervised component acts as a prediction selector that inspects the provided outputs and creates the most accurate one. We apply this approach in the energy sector, particularly using real industry data on oil well production, as provided to us by Raisa Energy. This learning approach leverages the generative component to provide superior results to those of the supervised counterpart. The approach also stabilizes the overall training, thereby improving the results and providing a more reliable training process.

First Page

45

Last Page

52

Comments

Conference Paper. Record derived from SCOPUS.

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