Abstract

Whether forced by economic conditions or internal motivations, contractors may choose to minimize their mark-up margins in order to maximize their chances of winning a bid. Such bidding conditions render contractors sensitive towards all types of risks associated with executing a project. This research aims at providing contractors with a framework through which they can reduce their bid prices to be able to compete in low biding conditions. This aim is realized through identifying risk elements that have the greatest impact on projects’ costs in the Egyptian construction industry. Work on this research follows a risk path approach consisting of risk sources, risk events, and risk consequences, and vulnerability factors consisting of robustness factors, resistance factors and sensitivity factors, whose relationships and risk paths are mapped through an ontology model. The weights characterizing that relationship between each of these elements is estimated through a three-phase model that utilizes both optimization and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), through 52 risks cenarios collected from 35 experts in the Egyptian Construction industry. Outputs generated by the model comprise of five sets of weights. Each set represents the effect of one risk path element on a subsequent element, collectively demonstrating the relations connecting the risk path elements to cost overruns. The model’s outputs showed that that 35 percent of the top 20 Robustness factors are related to project design. Lack of contractor’s technical resources rank higher than that of contractor’s financial resources in terms of their effect on Risk events. Project type has the most impact on project cost overrun, followed by Project delivery method. Further, delays due to bureaucracy whether from the owner or the government’s side rank at the bottom of the list.

Department

Construction Engineering Department

Degree Name

MS in Construction Engineering

Date of Award

6-1-2019

Online Submission Date

May 2019

First Advisor

Hosny, Ossama

Committee Member 1

Waly, Ahmed

Committee Member 2

Dorra, Elkhayam Medhat

Document Type

Thesis

Extent

119 p.

Rights

The author retains all rights with regard to copyright. The author certifies that written permission from the owner(s) of third-party copyrighted matter included in the thesis, dissertation, paper, or record of study has been obtained. The author further certifies that IRB approval has been obtained for this thesis, or that IRB approval is not necessary for this thesis. Insofar as this thesis, dissertation, paper, or record of study is an educational record as defined in the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) (20 USC 1232g), the author has granted consent to disclosure of it to anyone who requests a copy.

IRB

Not necessary for this item

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