Author

Ahmed Fayad

Abstract

The increasing demand on residential, office, retail, and services buildings as well as hotels and recreation has been encouraging investors from both private and public sectors to develop new communities and cities to meet the mixed demand in one location. These projects are huge in size, include several diversified functions, and are usually implemented over many years. The real estate projects’ master schedules are usually initiated at an early stage of development. The decision to start investing in infrastructure systems, that can ultimately serve fully occupied community or city, is usually taken during the early development stage. This applies to all services such as water, electricity, sewage, telecom, natural gas, roads, urban landscape and cooling and heating. Following the feasibility phase and its generated implementation schedule, the construction of the infrastructure system starts together with a number of real estate projects of different portfolios (retail, residential, commercial,…etc.). The development of the remaining real estate projects continues parallel to customer occupancy of the completed projects. The occurrence of unforeseen risk events, post completing the construction of infrastructure system, may force decision makers to react by relaxing the implementation of the remaining unconstructed projects within their developed communities. This occurs through postponing the unconstructed project and keeping the original feasibility-based sequence of projects unchanged. Decision makers may also change the sequence of implementing their projects where they may prioritize either certain portfolio or location zone above the other, depending on changes in the market demand conditions. The change may adversely impact the original planned profit in the original feasibility. The profit may be generated from either real estate portfolios and/or their serving Infrastructure system. The negative impact may occur due to possible delayed occupancy of the completed real estate projects which in turn reduces the services demand. This finally results in underutilization of the early implemented Infrastructure system. This research aims at developing a dynamic decision support prototype system to quantify impacts of unforeseen risks on the profitability of real estate projects as well as its infrastructure system in the cases of changing projects’ implementation schedules. It is also aimed to support decision makers with scheduled portfolio mix that maximizes their Expected Gross Profit (EGP) of real estate projects and their infrastructure system. The provided schedules can be either based on location zone or portfolio type to meet certain marketing conditions or even to respect certain relations between neighbor projects’ implementation constraints. In order to achieve the research objectives, a Risk Impact Mitigation (RIM) decision support system is developed. RIM consists mainly of four models, Real Estate Scheduling Optimization Model RESOM, Sustainable Landscape Optimization Model SLOM, District Cooling Optimization Model DCOM and Water Simulation Optimization Model WSOM. Integrated with the three Infrastructure specialized models SLOM, DCOM, WSOM, RESOM provides EGP values for individual Infrastructure systems. The three infrastructure models provide the demand profile that relate to a RESOM generated implementation schedule. RESOM then uses these profiles for calculating the profits using the projects’ capital expenditure and financial expenses. The three models included in this research (SLOM, DCOM and WSOM) relate to the urban landscape, district cooling and water systems respectively. RIM is applied on a large scale real estate development in Egypt. The development was subjected to difficult political and financial circumstances that were not forecasted while preparing original feasibility studies. RIM is validated using a questionnaire process. The questionnaire is distributed to 31 experts of different academic and professional background. RIM’s models provided expected results for different real life cases tested by experts as part of the validation process. The validation process indicated that RIM’s results are consistent, in compliance with expected results and is extremely useful and novel in supporting real estate decision makers in mitigating risk impacts on their profits. The validation process also indicated promising benefits and potential need for developed commercial version for future application within the industry.

Department

Construction Engineering Department

Date of Award

6-1-2014

Online Submission Date

August 2015

First Advisor

Hosny, Ossama

Committee Member 1

Elbeltagi, Emad

Committee Member 2

Ezeldin, Samer

Document Type

Dissertation

Extent

283 p.

Library of Congress Subject Heading 1

InfraStructure.

Library of Congress Subject Heading 2

Construction projects.

Rights

The author retains all rights with regard to copyright. The author certifies that written permission from the owner(s) of third-party copyrighted matter included in the thesis, dissertation, paper, or record of study has been obtained. The author further certifies that IRB approval has been obtained for this thesis, or that IRB approval is not necessary for this thesis. Insofar as this thesis, dissertation, paper, or record of study is an educational record as defined in the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) (20 USC 1232g), the author has granted consent to disclosure of it to anyone who requests a copy.

IRB

Not necessary for this item

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