Structural deterioration prediction modeling for coastal protection structures in alexandria eastern harbor

Structural deterioration prediction modeling for coastal protection structures in alexandria eastern harbor

Department

Construction Engineering Department

Abstract

Limited research has been carried out on artificial-intelligence-based deterioration modeling for coastal structures. An asset inventory database (AID) for Alexandria's Eastern Harbor coastal assets was developed. Established visual inspection and condition rating procedures were followed to obtain a current structural condition index (SI) and a structural condition matrix (SCM) for each structure, considering a single inspection point. SIs and SCMs are classified into severity ranges. Taking the age of structure into account, transition probabilities between each of the deterioration severity ranges were calculated using backward analysis. Such probabilities then were utilized to formulate the structure's Markov- Chain (MC) transition probability matrix, enabling the prediction of future deterioration in case of a no-action policy. Furthermore, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed using the same backward analysis concept. Comparing the MC and the ANN deterioration forecasts up to year 2050 for the same structures, the results showed very close deterioration trends with an error margin ranging between 5% and 12%. It was concluded that the stochastic MC-based deterioration modeling was more accurate in simulating the deterioration of structures between their year of construction and present. The deterministic ANN model showed promising capability of deterioration prediction depending on the quality of the structure's design data, historical records, and environmental conditions. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Publication Date

1-1-2014

Document Type

Book Chapter

Book Title

Construction Research Congress 2014: Construction in a Global Network - Proceedings of the 2014 Construction Research Congress

Editors

Daniel Castro-Lacouture; Javier Irizarry; Baabak Ashuri

ISBN

SCOPUS_ID:84904598563

Publisher

American Society of Civil Engineers

City

Atlanta, Georgia

First Page

2185

Last Page

2194

Structural deterioration prediction modeling for coastal protection structures in alexandria eastern harbor
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