Prediction of Infectious Disease to Reduce the Computation Stress on Medical and Health Care Facilitators

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Mathematics & Actuarial Science Department

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Shalini Shekhawat, Akash Saxena,Ramadan A. Zeineldin, Ali Wagdy Mohamed

Document Type

Research Article

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Publication Date

Fall 1-16-2023




Prediction of the infectious disease is a potential research area from the decades. With the progress in medical science, early anticipation of the disease spread becomes more meaningful when the resources are limited. Also spread prediction with limited data pose a deadly challenge to the practitioners. Hence, the paper presents a case study of the Corona virus (COVID-19). COVID-19 has hit the major parts of the world and implications of this virus, is life threatening. Research community has contributed significantly to understand the spread of virus with time, along with meteorological conditions and other parameters. Several forecasting techniques have already been deployed for this. Considering the fact, the paper presents a proposal of two Rolling horizon based Cubic Grey Models (RCGMs). First, the mathematical details of Cubic Polynomial based simple grey model is presented than two models based on time series rolling are proposed. The models are developed with the time series data of different locations, considering diverse overlap period and rolling values. It is observed that the proposed models yield satisfactory results as compared with the conventional and advanced grey models. The comparison of the performance has been carried out with calculation of standard error indices. At the end, some recommendations are also framed for the authorities, that can be helpful for decision making in tough time.

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